MLB Playoff preview / Predictions

Whose ready for some October baseball? The playoffs begin October 6...and I can't wait! So who ya got? Reds v Rangers? Yanks v Phils? I'll walk through each series and discuss 2nd round and World Series matchups in attempt to help you come to a decision. Make sure to find me on Twitter @TheKman84 and let me know what you think. Am I right? Am I wrong? Let's do this...

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
-Season Series won by Tampa Bay 4-2
-Tampa Bay has home field advantage for a best of 5 first round series.
Pitching Matchups for first 3 games: Cliff Lee (Tex) vs David Price (TB), CJ Wilson(Tex) vs James Shields (TB), Colby Lewis (Tex) vs Matt Garza (TB)




The Rundown: Texas has mashed and pitched their way to the top of the AL West on the bats of Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero, while Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, and Neftali Feliz anchor the pitching staff. Tampa Bay has it all. Great starting pitching, stellar bullpen arms, power, defense, and speed. On paper, I like how Texas matches up with Tampa. Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson will shut down the lefty bats in Tampa's lineup. Price, Shields, and Garza will also keep runners off base. I suspect this series to be low scoring. Look for some hit and run and base stealing to lead to victories for Tampa Bay in 3-2, 2-1 type fashion. Carl Crawford is a free agent next year, and we all remember what Carlos Beltran did for his stock while participating in postseason baseball the season before his free agency. Crawford will hit, steal, and catch en route to a Rays series victory in 4 games.

Keep an eye on: Look for Joe Maddon to "teach" Ron Washington about October baseball. Joey sweatshirt will make the right moves in his second go round and will out-manage Washington.

Yankees vs Twins
-Yankees won season series 4 games to 2.
-Minnesota has home field advantage in a best of 5 series
Pitching matchups for first 3 games: Sabathia (NY) vs Liriano (MIN), TBA (NY) vs Pavano (MIN), TBA (NY) vs Duensing (MIN)




The Rundown:

Minnesota has the advantage in the starting pitching category. Liriano can be as filthy as any pitcher in baseball when he wants to be. Pavano (and his mustache) have been the surprise pitching performers of the year. Duensing is a reliable 3rd or 4th starter, not great, not bad, but throws strikes. The Yanks have Sabathia and pray for rain...the Bronx bombers will ALWAYS have the best bullpen in the playoffs so long as #42 is healthy. What this series will boil down to is history. The Twins ALWAYS make the playoffs....and they ALWAYS lose to the Yankees. Jeter, A-Rod, Cano, Texeira, Berkman, and Granderson are all big time hitters who have proved themselves on baseball's biggest stage. Jim Thome is the only Twins regular with significant October baseball on his resume. And lets not forget if the Twins were to advance to the World Series, Thome's DH spot would be lost for 4 games. The Twins also got bad news today that former MVP Justin Morneau will NOT be on the playoff roster as he is still recovering from concussion like symptoms. Call me crazy, but I dont see this one being very close. I'll take the Yankees AND history over the Twins in 4 games.

Keep an Eye On: Curtis Granderson. Grandy has a flare for the dramatic. Dont be surprised if he drives in a big run or two in a late inning situation.


Reds vs Phillies
-Phillies won season series 5-2 over the Reds
-Phillies have the home field advantage in the 5 game series
Pitching Matchups for first 3 games: Edison Volquez (CIN) vs Roy Halladay (PHI), Bronson Arroyo (CIN) vs Roy Oswalt (PHI), and Johnny Cueto (CIN) vs Cole Hamels (PHI)




The Rundown:

The Reds are an amazing story. The beautiful part of baseball is any given year, a team can catch lightning in a bottle and make a run to October. The Reds have amazing young arms and a team full of future All Stars and MVP's...but this is a 16 seed playing Duke in the NCAA tourney. Are they good? Absolutely. Do they belong there? Of course. Are they going to get their asses handed to them? Sorry Cincy. My personal test of an NL team is hypothetically putting them in the American League and playing the season out in my head. The Phillies would win 90 games if they played in the AL. They are really good. I'm taking Howard, Utley, Rollins, Werth, and Victorino over any other 5 guys in their league. I'm also taking Cole Hamels as my 3rd starter...That's right, THIRD starter. He'd be the number 1 or 2 guy in most cities. The Phils have the best pitcher in the world in Roy Halladay, and an All Star fire baller in Roy Oswalt as their number 2. The Phills havent played meaningful baseball in a week or so, which could lead to a slip in game 1. Halladay will certainly keep them in the game if the starting position players are rusty. I see this series going 3 very quick games. Philly will be locked, loaded, and have their pitching staff in order for the NLCS.

Keep an Eye On: Brad Lidge. When you're hot you're hot, when you're not you're not. Lidge can be down right filthy...or he can be down right awful (See October 05' vs October 08'). Which Lidge shows up this October?


Braves vs Giants
-Braves won season series 4-3
-Giants have home field advantage in 5 game series
-Pitching Matchups for the first 3 games: Derek Lowe (ATL) vs Tim Lincecum (SF), Tommy Hanson (ATL) vs Matt Cain (SF), and Tim Hudson (ATL) vs Jonathon Sanchez (SF)




The Rundown:

The Giants pitching has been great all season. The bats have been good, not great. San Fran is lead offensively and defensively by future MVP Buster Posey. The Giants also have grizzled vets that have been there before in Pat "The Bat" Burrell, Juan Uribe, and Aaron Rowand. I'm not sure if the entire bullpen wears fake beards, but they look like they do. Sergio Romo (looks like Fidel Castro with his fake beard) has set up Brian Wilson very well, which effectively shortens ball games for the Giants.
The Braves are the sweet hearts of the playoffs this year. Most baseball people with no real rooting interest will be cheering for Bobby Cox to get ring number 2 as Braves' Manager. I will be one of those baseball people. The Braves were able to overcome the loss of future hall of famer and clubhouse leader Chipper Jones without skipping a beat. I love the starting pitchers Atlanta will be throwing against San Fran. I also look for that kid Jason Heyward to announce his presence as the future of baseball. This by far is the most intriguing matchup on paper. I could see this one going either way, but in the end, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, and Tommy Hanson will outpitch Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain. Braves win in 5.

Keep an Eye On: Giants starting pitchers. These guys are good, but unproven in the playoffs. If they give up runs early, can they rebound and right the ship?

Hypothetical 2nd round matchups:

Braves vs Phillies
-Phillies won season series 10-8
-Phillies would have home field advantage in a 7 game series

Dont be surprised if the Braves pitching staff gets hot and puts up a valiant fight against their NL East division rival. Assuming Philly wins in 3 or 4 games in the NLDS, they will have Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels ready to start the NLCS. Because these teams know eachother so well, I would suspect this series to go at least 6 games. In the end, the Phils have too much fire power and too much great pitching to be beat. Phils win in 6.

Yankees vs Rays
-Rays won season series 10-8
-Rays would have home field advantage in a 7 game series

Home field advantage means nothing in this series. There are most likely more Yankee fans in the Tampa/St. Pete area then Rays fans. The Rays dont care. They have been winning ballgames all year long in front of empty houses. The pitching is going to crap out on the Yankees. It's possible Sabathia goes twice in round one. In a close 7 game series, Sabathia will probably go 3 times. Thats too much for one arm to take. Crawford, Longoria, and Pena will out hit A-Rod, Texeira, and Cano, and the Tampa pitching will hold steady. In a very close and hard fought series, The Rays knock off the Yanks in 7 games.

World Series Prediction:

Phillies vs Tampa Bay

In case you haven't already figured out, I am drinking the Philly Kool Aid....and it tastes good. One of the all time great put together teams will do what they did back in 08' and beat the Rays. I suspect this series going 5....maybe 6. The Phils will be able to use one of their excellent bench players like Greg Dobbs as DH in games 3,4, and 5 in Tampa bolstering their already potent lineup even more. Line up every phase of this matchup: Pitching (starting/bullpen), offense, defense, bench, coaching......I would argue Philly has the advantage in each category. In the end, Philadelphia will hoist the commissioner's trophy over their collective heads, ending a great 2010 baseball season.

End Of Season Baseball Awards

Another GREAT baseball season is nearing an end. As the season concludes, I take a look into my crystal ball and progosticate the end of season awards. Several awards are all but locked up...a couple are as wide open as Wrigley Field in October. Make sure to find me on Twitter (@TheKman84) and let me know what you think....HERE WE GO!!!

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
SHOULD WIN: Ron Gardenhire (MN Twins) - Gardie has won yet another AL Central title and besides a brief midseason stint in 2nd place, has been in the driver seat of the division the entire year. His ballclub is within 2 games of home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs. Those stats alone would put Gardie in the running without any further discussion. There's more. The Twins have been without All Star Closer Joe Nathan the entire season and former MVP Justin Morneau's picture has been on Milk boxes since the mid-season break. Some guy named Danny Valencia has hit the cover off the ball and Jim Thome looks like the Mr. Incredible of old. I wish I could say it's luck, but this happens year after year after year. Gardenhire, although looking like Burl Ives, will win this award comfortably.

COULD WIN: Ron Washington (TX Rangers) - Washington has his boys in the playoffs for the first time since the Rangers got rid of all their talent (steroids) such as Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Gone Gonzalez, and Raffy Palmiero. Speed, Power, Pitching and defense are all cornerstones of this Ranger ballclub. Nolan Ryan should get part of the award if Washington wins for his part in assembling the pitching staff and enstilling the "bulldog" mentality in them. It's a shame that the Rangers are banged up right now and most likely will exit in the first round. The Rangers are looking like the class of the West for years to come and Washington will get a well deserved extension soon to which he can buy all the blow he wants.

Dark Horse: Ozzie Guillen (Whitesox) - Most would argue, and I would also, that this season is Ozzie's best in his 7 seasons managing on the south side. With far less talent than Tampa Bay and New York, Oz would get the nod over Girardi and Madden. His call to get rid of Jim Thome and go to DH by commitee was this season's overall downfall/memory.

MY MIDSEASON PICK WAS: Ron Washington

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Dusty Baker (Reds)- If you had to bet on ONE guy to win NL manager of the year to save your life....I'm guessing you'd be dead right now. Dusty AND his toothpick have brought winning back to the Queen City. Most Cub fans will tell Reds fans to enjoy the 1 or 2 titles before he ruins all the young arms and gets fired. I will agree.

COULD WIN: Bud Black (Padres) - If you had to bet ONE guy to win NL manager of the year to save your life.....I'd ask what type of shady people do you consort with? But this is another great story, even if they end up on the outside looking in. Most picked San Diego to finish dead last in the NL west this year, and they have proved EVERYone wrong. Heading into Wednesday, the Padres are still alive for both the West AND the wild card. Remember people, Bud Black was the pitching coach for Mike Scoscia's World Series champion Angels...so no surprise the SD pitching staff is easily one of the best in the league.

DARK HORSE: Bobby Cox (Braves) - Would anyone have a problem with the writers honoring the best NL manager of the past 25 years by voting him as NL Manager of the year? Nope. A playoff appearance coming out of arguably the deepest division in the NL would be an impressive and fitting way to end Bobby's Hall of Fame career.

MY MIDSEASON PICK WAS: Dusty Baker

AMERICAN LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Neftali Feliz (Rangers) - 2.81 ERA, 38 Saves, .89 WHIP are GREAT numbers for a closer...let alone a rookie in the middle of a pennant race. I saw this first hand in 2005 with Bobby Jenks. Some of the most grizzled veterans can't pitch in the closer role, but this kid hit the ground running. Let's also not forget that Feliz's ridiculous numbers are being put up in one of the best hitters parks in all of baseball. Overall, the good numbers and role Feliz had helping his team get to October is why he tops my list.

Honorable Mention: Danny Valencia (Twins) - .318BA 7 HR'S 40RBI and a .815 OPS. I take Valencia over either of the Tiger outfielders because both kind of faded in the stretch run, while Valencia stepped into the well oiled machine that is the Minnesota Twins and instantly became a workable cog. Valencia is one of the several Twinkies that stepped in and produced in Morneau's absence. Power numbers were not there, but thats most likely due to the ballpark he played in. Valencia also provided solid defense at the hot corner.

MY MIDSEASON PICK: B Boesch (Tigers)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Buster Posey (Giants) - .313 BA, 16 HR's, 64RBI, .873 OPS - Buster Posey is the man. solid numbers for a catcher. Solid numbers for a catcher playing in a pitchers ballpark. Solid numbers for an everyday rookie in a pennant race. His handling of the SF pitching staff is nothing short of sublime. Run away NL winner in my opinion.

Honorable Mention: Jaime Garcia: 2.70 ERA, 13-8 WL, and 1.32 WHIP - Garcia had a great year. He plays in a division with lots and lots of big boppers, and yet he kept his ERA under 3.00. That's impressive. Garcia performed beyond St Louis expectations, but one cant help but question whether this is just another Dave Duncan special??? If he turns into Kyle Lohse, we'll know for sure. No disrespect meant towards Jaime. Disrespect MEANT for Lohse.

MY MIDSEASON PICK FOR NL ROY: Gaby Sanchez



NL CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay (Phillies) - Doc Halladay is down right dirty. Dude almost threw 3 no hitters this year. It's my opinion that in 100 years the Cy Young award will be called the Roy Halladay Award....I'm not joking...he's that good. Put Doc on the best team in the NL and mark him down for 20 wins for the next 5 to 6 years. My Sox only played Halladay's Jays 6 games a year, but that almost certainly meant seeing him twice. That is two times TOO MANY. I am so glad this guy is in the NL.

Honorable Mention: Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) - If they gave out awards for each half, Ubaldo would have won the first half Cy. I hinted towards the notion in my midseason report that Ubaldo might make a run at Denny McLean's 30 wins....I was a bit off. Ubaldo has yet to get to 20 wins. Despite his 2nd half struggles, his 1st half performance warrants him being in the team photo for CY candidates.

MY MIDSEASON CY PICK: Ubaldo Jimenez

AL CY YOUNG WINNER: David Price (Tampa Bay Rays) - Let me start by saying that King Felix is the downright dirtiest pitcher in the American League. King Felix, however, is ONE stinking game over .500 on the season, and his WHIP, ERA, and K's are at the top of the charts. Price's numbers are at or near the top as well, plus he's pitching for a good team. Let's not forget Price's everyday competition in comparison to say...the AL West. It's not even a question who has the tougher opponents day in and day out. 2.73 ERA 19-6 WL, and a 1.20 WHIP sound like Cy Young numbers to me. One last thing I'll say about King Felix is this: Zack Greinke won the Cy Young last year on a bad team...but he went 16-8....MUCH better than 13-12.

HONORABLE MENTION: CC Sabathia (Yankees) - CC's numbers are comparable to Price and I could honestly see this going either way. I wonder if Boston and NY sports writers will split their votes and leave the award in Price's hands. One thing I would say about Sabathia is this: If I was playing a game 163 to get into the playoffs and I could pick any pitcher, I'm probably going Sabathia.

MY MIDSEASON PICK: David Price

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera - Cabby wins in a close vote, but wins regardless. .328 BA, 38 HR's, 126 RBI's, and 1.044 OPS gives him the nod over Konerko, Cano, and Hamilton. Hamilton is not being considered as he has spent more than a month on the DL. Imagine the Tigers without Miguel Cabrera...Does the term "Dumpster Fire" come to mind? Yikes. This guy is the ONLY Tiger that got the memo that baseball starts in April and ends in September. I hate giving MVP awards to guys on losing teams, but the numbers dont lie. Cabrera is the best offensive player in Major League Baseball.

Honorable Mention: Paul Konerko (Whitesox) - Before you call me a mouth breathing homer, look at the man's numbers: .310 BA, 38 HR's, 107 RBI's, and a .971 OPS. Compare those numbers to Cabrera's. Also take into consideration Paulie is one of the top 3 or 4 defensive first basemen in the AL. Add the fact that Konerko is the Captain of the team and you have yourself a valuable player. Unfortunately, the only way the White Sox get ANY press on national networks is by either playing the Yankees/RedSox, throwing a perfect game, or winning the World Series. I have yet to hear Konerko's name mentioned in the discussion on the 4 letter sports channel. Take Konerko away from the Sox lineup and the Royals end up in 3rd place...if you catch my drift. The term "valuable" cant be more perfect for Konerko's role on his club.

MY MIDSEASON PICK: Miguel Cabrera



NL MVP: Joey Votto (Reds) - .325BA, 37 HR's, 111 RBI, and 1.029 OPS are RIDICULOUS numbers! I'm guessing you assumed a powerful 1st baseman from the NL Central would run away with the MVP award this year? I did too. Fact of the matter is Votto beats out Pujols because Votto is going to the playoffs and Pujols isnt. I love Votto's attitude...He said he hates the Cubs, and we all remember what happened between his Reds and Pujols' Cardinals. Too often I go to a ballgame and see players from different teams hugging and chatting pregame...Votto agrees with me...those guys are NOT your friends...Dude is very young and to be so vocal at such a young age tells you Cincinnati has something special at first base.

Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols (Cardinals) - The sexy pick is Carlos Gonzalez. Let me debunk the Cargo myth right now... First, Cargo's numbers: .331 BA, 34 HR's, 117 RBI's. Great season numbers...look closer now...Home #'s .386 BA, 26 HR's, 76 RBI's. Now look on the road: .293 BA 8 HR's, and 41 RBI. WOW. This guy is making a living mashing at Coors. I dont hate on the guy because he's taking advantage of his surroundings, but he is ABSOLUTELY a product of Coors Field, and not worthy of an MVP Award. Pujols put up big numbers in a decent sized ball park. Albert would hit 40 dingers if he played in Yellowstone park. Like I said before, Pujols loses only because he is not going to the playoffs, and Votto is. Numbers are comparable.

So that's it folks...tell me what you think! Keep an eye out for my post season predictions as soon as the matchups are set. Can't Wait for October baseball!!!

Mid Season Baseball Awards

This weekend marks the half way point of the Major League Baseball season. IF the season were to end this weekend, here's how I would vote for the post season awards



AL Rookie of the Year: Brennan Boesch-DET .340BA 12HR 46RBI in only 57 games played. (Honorable Mention Neftali Feliz-TEX 21 Saves and 3.06ERA 0.99WHIP) I think you could make an argument for either of these guys but I give the nod to Boesch for his ability to protect Miguel Cabrera. Having to bat behind Cabrera is a big responsibility and for a rookie to be hitting so well is an impressive feat. Feliz throws triple digit cheddar and already has 22 saves on the year. That's all-star worthy on its own right. To put up big pitching numbers in the Ballpark at Arlington is even more impressive.

NL Rookie of the Year: Gaby Sanchez-FLA 9HR 38RBI .309BA (Honorable Mention Jaime Garcia- STL 8W 4L 2.10ERA .220 OBA 1.22WHIP) Steer clear of the sexy NL names like Heyward, Strasburg, Davis, Alvarez, Stanton, and Posey. Look at the numbers. Gaby is swinging a big stick in a big ballpark. The Marlins have a good track record with First Basemen. Like Adrian Gonzalez and Derek Lee before him, Gaby is only going to get better. Many might argue that Jaime Garcia is just another bi-product of Dave Duncan's pitching genius, but NObody argues with the results. Garcia has looked stellar and shows no sign of slowing down in the 2nd half. If the Cards are going to win the Central, they will need continued success from the back end of their rotation.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Josh Hamilton-TEX 19HR 59RBI .340BA compared to last year 10HR 54RBI .268BA (Honorable Mention: Alex Rios-CHW 13HR 44RBI 22SB .312BA compared to last year 17HR 71RBI 24SB .247 BA) Many would make the case for Hamilton as the league MVP (myself included). Hamilton is 1 of 2 American Leaguer's who have an outside chance at the triple crown and is partially responsible for the Rangers spot atop the West Division. Rios had a terrible 2009 and now could arguably be the most productive centerfielder in the American League posting a good BA, solid power numbers, and 22 swipes. Alex and teammate Konerko kept the White Sox afloat during an abysmal April and May.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Troy Glaus-ATL 14HR 56RBI .260BA compared to last years 0HR 2RBI .172BA in only 14 games played (Honorable Mention Scott Rolen-CIN 17HR 56 RBI .302BA compared to 11 HR and 67 RBI the entire 09' season) Again, hard to make the case for one or the other. Both are established veterans with successful pasts. Most, including myself, didn't even know Glaus still played baseball. Troy's big power numbers are part of the reason why the Braves are back in the playoff hunt again. Rolen's BA is always good, but his power numbers have really came back this year. Rolen is ALWAYS hurt, and perhaps his big numbers are a direct result of him being fully healthy for the first time in many years. Rolen leads a group of unproven youngsters in the Queen City and currently find themselves in first place.

AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington-TEX (Honorable Mention Ron Gardenhire-MIN) Manager of the year comes down to what team is playing much better baseball than expected. Most give the West to the Angels every year until someone proves they are better. Washington found a great replacement for Rudy Jaramillo in Clint Hurdle. The Rangers have put more an emphasis on pitching and defense and are playing great ball under Washington. Gardie continues to lose big names to free agency and injury and yet like the sun rising, the Twins are near the top of their division once again.

NL Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker-CIN (Honorable Mention Jerry Manuel-NYM) The NL manager of the year mid season award could also be called the former Chicago manager currently doing well award. Dusty has his boys in the thick of things in the Central, while Jerry has the Met's playing good ball in the uber competitive East division.

AL Cy Young: David Price-TB 11W 4L 2.42ERA (Honorable Mention: Clay Bucholz-BOS 10W 4L 2.45 ERA) Everybody is talking about the NL pitchers with their amazing ERA's. Meanwhile, David Price is quietly putting together a Cy Young Caliber season. A former #1 pick, Price is showing his worth to the Rays in the starting rotation. He throws strikes and keeps his defense on their toes, and as a southpaw he holds advantages over in-division rival lefties such as David Ortiz, Curtis Granderson, and switch hitting Texeira and Posada (hit better as lefties). Bucholz has great mid season numbers and will most likely get a lot of attention come years end as he plays for Boston, and we all know Boston has that large national TV network (ESPN) to campaign for him.

NL Cy Young: Ubaldo Jimenez-COL 14W 1L 1.83 ERA (Honorable Mention: Josh Johnson-FLA 8W 3L 1.82 ERA) Get Nervous Denny McLain...Ubaldo is on pace for 30 wins...which would be a first since 1968. Ubaldo AND Johnson have dental floss thin sub 2.00 ERA's. While it is widely acknowledged the NL has fewer hitters than the AL, giving up less than 2 runs per 9 innings is damn impressive regardless of league affiliation. I don't like to put Wins as a top priority for my Cy Young, but if Ubaldo comes anywhere close to 30 he should be a unanimous selection.



AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera-DET 20 HR 68 RBI .337BA (Honorable Mention: Josh Hamilton-TEX 19HR 59RBI .340BA) Miggy Cabrera might win the Triple Crown. The Tigers might ride Cabrera's giant bat all the way to October. This guy has no weaknesses and is the American League's version of Pujols. Once he wins one MVP, he's not going to stop winning them until he retires. Hamilton also has monster numbers and his team is on pace for post season baseball, but Miggy gets the nod because his offense surrounding him isn't nearly as potent as Hamilton's is. DARK HORSE: Evan Longoria-TB

NL MVP: Joey Votto-CIN 19 HR 57 RBI.313 BA (Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols-STL 19 HR 59 RBI .306 BA) Nobody would think less of you for picking Albert Pujols as your NL MVP...Dont be surprised if another First baseman from the NL Central wins instead. Votto's numbers are immaculate, and he has been clutch city all year long. If his numbers don't decline and the Reds win the Central, how can you vote for Pujols? Having said that....This is just a mid season award...I fully expect Votto to slow down a bit at which time a big name will step in and establish himself as league best. DARK HORSE: David Wright-NYM

So...What do you think???